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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."