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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.